Seeing Trends and
Opening the Door to the Future

Enter AI 2.0

From AlphaGo, the first computer programme to beat a human at the board game Go, to ChatGPT, the gap between AI and humanity is closing. What other major developments and changes will occur in this field in the next one to five years?

That is an interesting question. The assumption is that humans are better than AI, and AI is closing the gap on humans. But this is a mistaken assumption.

Lee feels that 20 years ago, AI could do about 1% of what humans could do, with that percentage rising to 5% after the emergence of AlphaGo. Today, however, AI can do so many things we cannot imagine. It can produce more in-depth content than a human, imitate realistic human dialogue, and even come up with new medicines and new treatments.

“In the past, humans were the most intelligent creatures on earth. Now, 60-70% of what humans can do, AI can do as well or even better. If we look at overall intelligence, I feel that today’s AI has surpassed humans. So I think humans have to stop taking ourselves as the gold standard.”

AI First: every application connected to an AI Brain

Of course, humans are still able to do things that AI cannot, and vice versa. In fact, each has its own advantage — but today, humans are no longer the most intelligent beings on earth.

Humans let AI learn what we need to learn and then come back and teach us.

Even so, AI can empower current human functions. Humans need to work, play, socialise, communicate, learn and so on, all of which are supported by either a PC or a mobile network application. Having every application connected to an AI brain is what Lee calls the AI First concept.

For instance, in the past when we had to write a report, we would open a word processing software, start with a blank page, and type everything out word by word. An AI assistant has an IQ equivalent to 100 professors, and would be able to help humans read all data that needs to be read.

“Humans have narrow thinking and extremely low bandwidth, and cannot take in knowledge or the gist of theses in a short time. When we read, we can only read relatively simple material, because our brains cannot take in a 5,000 page essay just like that, or come to a pithy conclusion. AI can quickly produce a PowerPoint to explain things to us. Humans let AI learn what we need to learn and then come back and teach us.”

AI is not flawed like a human. You can ask it not to lose its temper, or not to be sarcastic and nasty, and it will only say nice things.

What AI can do

Lee predicted that within two years, half of our online interactions will be with AI, which is able to do three things that humans are unable to.

First, it will get to know each individual it interacts with, and satisfy their needs, and create a friend the user likes based on their characteristics.

Second, through a process called alignment, AI can make itself especially humorous, adorable, empathetic and so on. It can understand you, and become a companion and friend you like interacting with.

Third, AI is not flawed like a human. You can ask it not to lose its temper, or not to be sarcastic and nasty, and it will only say nice things.

A year ago, the fastest technology or software to reach 100 million users in human history was TikTok, which hit the mark in roughly nine months. After ChatGPT was launched, it hit 100 million users in two months, while Character AI did it in six months. Now, the top two best technology applications in the world are both AI applications, and in just two years, the top 10, 20 or even 100 applications could likely be AI applications. If you remove AI, these applications will not work.

Lee said firmly, “We are now firmly in the era of AI 2.0. All applications will be rewritten, and this is a revolution that cannot be missed.”

... what can us humans do that AI cannot? Perhaps only two things: the trust, love, and emotions between people, as well as human creativity and the ability to deal with complex matters.

Loneliness without trust and love

One must be passionate about the development of AI, but not at the expense of human emotions.

Let us do some soul-searching; what can us humans do that AI cannot? Perhaps only two things: the trust, love, and emotions between people, as well as human creativity and the ability to deal with complex matters.

In 2013, Lee was diagnosed with cancer, with over 20 tumours in his body. After 17 months of treatment, the cancer has gone into remission. This illness has led him to feel even deeper the connections with family, which is something that AI cannot replace.

He realised that science today cannot explain the spiritual connection, trust and love shared between people. AI can help people do many things that humans do now, but at the same time, there may be many things that AI cannot do, including replacing love between people.

If people all turn towards AI due to unhappiness in human interactions, then everyone could end up being lonely — that would be extremely bad.

Also, AI can help humans free themselves from repetitive labour, and allow us to spend more time on things we are more adept at, or things that bring us true growth and joy.

It is an Asian tradition to feel the joy of being part of a big family, or for each individual to have their own hobbies, such as photography, calligraphy and so on. Even if not at a world-class level, being able to spend time on something that one loves brings out the meaning of life.

“There is a lot of unhappiness in the world, but we humans should not run away from it, or run away from people. If people all turn towards AI due to unhappiness in human interactions, then everyone could end up being lonely — that would be extremely bad.”

US strong in technology, China good at applications

Presently, many are focusing on geopolitical issues, and the China-US conflict has expanded to various sectors, especially in the technological field. Late last year, the US placed restrictions on the export of advanced GPU chips to China.

GPU is a key factor in computing power or suanli (算力), and curbing the export of GPUs is effectively putting a chokehold on China’s development of AI computing power. Besides computing power, the development of AI is also dependent on data and algorithms.

Lee said the US is ahead in GPU, and it has tried to consolidate and safeguard its lead by leveraging this advantage. But perhaps we are overlooking two things. First, when it comes to data collection and optimisation, China’s huge population means that it can do well in data collection with conscientious effort.

WeChat is far easier to use than WhatsApp, and TikTok/Douyin is far easier to use than Instagram, and Meituan is far easier to use than DoorDash.

Second is the development of sophisticated software. There is a need to ensure that AI computing, learning and logic is done well. This involves not only algorithms, but also software engineering, including managing internet protocol and how to deal with the transfer of large amounts of data.

“When it comes to ensuring efficient usage of each GPU, China does not lag behind any country.”

Lee felt there is no doubt that China is the world’s best in “development of consumer applications”. China is not the leader in all applications and softwares, but when it comes to frequently used mobile applications, China is definitely ahead.

“WeChat is far easier to use than WhatsApp, and TikTok/Douyin is far easier to use than Instagram, and Meituan is far easier to use than DoorDash. Shein, which recently expanded overseas, and Pinduoduo’s Temu, are all world-class. In fact, in the past decade or so, China has quietly become the manager, developer and entrepreneur of the world’s best, most numerous [app] products.”

Consumer-facing applications are always an important driver of new platforms and technology; this is true of the mobile internet era, and Lee believes it will be the same in the AI era, and so he feels it is still very hard to say who would come up on top.

What role can small countries like Singapore play?

Small countries like Singapore seem relatively insignificant when it comes to talent and data. What role can such countries play in the future AI world?

Lee felt that there are in fact many opportunities for Singapore.

First, Singapore is among the leaders in scientific research.

Second, Singapore’s domestic market is small and it has to look overseas — companies that are doing well currently such as Sea, Grab and so forth all look towards Southeast Asia or even larger markets.

Ironically, for countries with a larger domestic market, such as with populations in the tens of millions, many entrepreneurs may only produce things needed in their own countries, and do not reach the scale of companies like Grab and Sea.

Third, Singapore is the most technologically competitive country in the rapidly growing region of Southeast Asia. With its very astute government, it should be able to push good policies that take care of some major issues. This would attract some tech companies to choose Singapore as a testing ground, before pushing their products to the whole world.

Finally, Singapore has deftly managed its relations with both China and the US. Now, there are many Chinese and Americans who are willing to come to Singapore, or collaborate with Singapore.

If the government invests a lot of resources to spur Singapore to become one of the top five countries in the world in the AI era, I think the opportunity is there.

Lee felt that Singapore’s entrepreneurial environment is rather good, but it is not as large or powerful as China and the US. He felt Singapore should leverage some of its unique advantages, one of which is a very astute government that can make bold and ambitious moves, so that when the AI era comes, Singapore will not lag behind, but can be among the world’s leaders.

“The AI era is coming too quickly. In the past two years, AI has improved from an average person’s IQ to an IQ higher than any human. If the government invests a lot of resources to spur Singapore to become one of the top five countries in the world in the AI era, I think the opportunity is there. Singapore has the ability and the advantages, but it must act quickly to seize this opportunity.”

Wars will drag on

The Israel-Hamas conflict has already spilled over to several countries, including Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran and even Pakistan, and runs the risk of further expansion. The Houthis have been attacking Red Sea ships since last November, leading to a 40% drop in commercial traffic passing through the Suez Canal, an important international shipping route. Now, merchants are either cancelling their orders or forced to bear higher shipping costs.

Chan pointed out that as a shipping nation, the impact of the Red Sea crisis on Singapore is evident. Next, the conflict in the Middle East may trigger the rise of terrorist activities in other parts of the world. Also, three of the ten ASEAN countries are predominantly Muslim, and many other countries also have Muslim minority groups. Many of them want to see an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, and governments will need to consider how the populace would respond.

It is a question of whether Russia or Ukraine will wear out first, then there will be a negotiation. Each will want to do it at a time most favourable to its position.

As for the war in Ukraine, Chan described that it has unfortunately turned into a war of attrition, and some Western countries are showing aid fatigue towards Ukraine. Although the Nordic and Baltic countries, as well as Ukraine’s neighbours want to keep up the strong support for the war as they see that the future of European security will be determined by how this war is conducted and ends, other countries in Europe are less supportive due to their own domestic concerns.

She said, “It is a question of whether Russia or Ukraine will wear out first, then there will be a negotiation. Each will want to do it at a time most favourable to its position.”

For Ukraine, which is the weaker of the two parties and highly reliant on external support, the price of war will be higher. There is very clear awareness that when war opens on different fronts, the US’s attention will be taken away and Ukraine can feel this drastically once the Israel-Hamas war started.

Where is the end? Chan refrained from predicting when the Russia-Ukraine war will end, but said, “In fact, I’m not sure you have short wars anymore. A lot of wars are going to be long wars, longish wars.”

New momentum in Taiwan?

At the time of the interview, the Taiwan presidential elections had just concluded and the self-professed “pragmatic worker for Taiwan independence” William Lai was elected, and various parties began worrying about the rapid escalation of cross-strait tensions and even military conflict. But Chan instead noticed that, compared with the past, both sides of the Taiwan Strait had a more measured response before and after the Taiwan elections this time.

She observed that before the countdown to 2024, mainland Chinese state media aired a clip of celebrities from both sides of the Taiwan Strait singing together the Taiwanese pop song Tomorrow will be Better. In the video, Taiwanese singers talked about “people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait being one family” (两岸一家亲), while mainland Chinese singers highlighted the unique features of their respective hometowns, such as the sea in Qingdao and Sichuan’s hotpots.

Chan said, “That’s a softer approach than just shooting missiles across.”

“I think China understands and learned from the last elections. If it is too heavy in its approach, the pressure is too strong. The Taiwanese will just react the other way." she added.

Regarding the South Pacific island nation of Nauru's announcement that it would sever diplomatic ties with Taiwan less than 48 hours after Taiwan's election, Chan believes that Taiwan will continue to face similar pressures from the mainland, but Beijing's future actions remain to be seen.

Chan thinks that Lai’s mention of the “constitutional order of the Republic of China” is significant...

Numerous Western media also claimed that Beijing is upset with the outcome of the Taiwan elections, Chan disagreed and believes that the mainland must have already collected opinion polls and intelligence. “Would they be surprised by the results? No, I doubt it,” she surmised.

Although Lai from the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won the elections, he only received 40% of the votes and also lost the legislative majority. Chan predicts that a new dynamic is forming in Taiwan’s political arena. She also observed that Lai has made it clear in a press conference after his victory that it is his “important responsibility, as president, to maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait”. He pledged to “act in accordance with the constitutional order of the Republic of China, in a manner that is balanced and that maintains the cross-strait status quo”.

Chan thinks that Lai’s mention of the “constitutional order of the Republic of China” is significant, especially since the on-site English translation initially mistranslated it as “democratic and free constitutional order”, and subsequently corrected to emphasise “Republic of China”, which further shows that the DPP or Lai’s team want this position to be noticed.

As to what will happen in the coming months, Chan thinks that we must wait and see what the run up to the inauguration would be like as well as Lai’s inauguration speech on 20 May.

... there’s an attitude about technology: it is ‘ours’... And technology is seen to be the decider... the most advanced technology will decide who wins the economic game and the defence military game.

US will not play the Taiwan card

Since 2021, Taiwan has been described as the “most dangerous place on earth”. Some mainland Chinese observers have also speculated that the US is not only using Taiwan to contain the mainland, but even adopting the long-term strategy of “inducing war” in an attempt to induce a Taiwan Strait conflict to hinder the mainland’s rise.

When I asked her about this speculation, Chan, who was stationed in the US for 16 years and has a deep understanding of the country, responded that if the US wants to slow down or block China’s rise, it will use the technology field and not Taiwan.

“The US wants to control the export of really high-end and sophisticated critical technologies to China. They say, ‘It is ours. Why are we so foolish as to just sell it to everybody? Because in the end it comes back to bite our hands.’ So there’s an attitude about technology: it is ‘ours’... And technology is seen to be the decider... the most advanced technology will decide who wins the economic game and the defence military game,” she explained.

Chan shared that after recently reading Chip War: The Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology, she was reminded that even Japan, an ally of the US, suffered the same treatment — additional tariffs, export controls, market bans and technology embargoes — when the US saw it as its main competitor back then. It is just that sanctions against China are much broader, and there are more high-tech products today. “The US views competition in a way that defines competition as security. That’s a problem for China,” she said.

In comparison, creating instability in the Taiwan Strait is not in the interest of the US. “What are they going to do? Is the US going to send troops to Taiwan?” she asked.

Americans are not looking for another war, and they don’t want to see American blood spilt.

Although US President Joe Biden has repeatedly made gaffes in saying that he would send forces to defend Taiwan, Chan thinks that the US has been cautiously avoiding sending troops to Ukraine and the Middle East, only providing weapons, drones, missiles and so on.

“Americans are not looking for another war, and they don’t want to see American blood spilt.” she stated.

China-US relations in 2024: tactical stabilisation

Although the global situation in 2024 is highly unpredictable, Chinese and US leaders are willing to stabilise China-US relations.

Chan described China-US relations as “tactically stable” following the meeting between the Chinese and US heads of state in San Francisco last November. Biden, who needs to run for re-election, does not want China-US relations to be unstable; meanwhile, China must focus on solving its domestic economic problems.

However, Chan also warned that the Biden administration will not lift its technology export restrictions on China to avoid being seen as soft towards it, and more Chinese companies and individuals can be expected to be included in the US’s Entity List.

At the time of the interview, former US President Donald Trump had secured successive victories in the Republican primaries and seemed to be inching closer to his goal of returning to the White House.

The rivalry between China and the US will continue to deepen over a long period of time, and Trump 2.0 will not change this.

When this reporter asked Chan to assess the possibility of “Trump 2.0”, she answered indirectly, “Some Democrats cannot imagine that Trump can win, and many Republicans are confident that Trump will win. I would say that he has a chance, and I don’t rule out a Trump victory at all. But it’s too early now to tell. Seasoned observers of American elections will tell you that you should only pay attention to the polls after September.”

But if “Trump 2.0” were to take place, what dramatic changes would we see in US policy? Chan cautiously answered, “Trump is not very predictable.

“He has said that he will impose a 10% tariff on all countries: China, Japan, and those in the EU, ASEAN and Latin America. This may hasten a global economic recession. But some people have another expectation of him, which is that he would try to bring an end to the Russia-Ukraine war. Trump is a good friend of Russian President Vladimir Putin, and I believe that Putin will prefer to negotiate with Ukraine when Trump is in office as the conditions will be more favourable to Russia. It will have an impact on the Ukraine war. In addition, Trump is very concerned about the trade imbalance between the US and China, and would force the latter to make concessions.

“Some people think that Trump sees China as an economic challenge. But both the Democrats and Republicans see China as a strategic challenge, so even if Trump doesn’t see it that way, his appointed officials, secretary of defence, national security adviser and secretary of state will all have influence. Although the president would have the last say in the end, they will still have an impact. The rivalry between China and the US will continue to deepen over a long period of time, and Trump 2.0 will not change this.”

If Trump takes office, he could focus more on domestic issues in the US. He declared last year that he would reform the American establishment and tackle the “deep state”. Chan reiterated, “We cannot predict what Trump will do.”

The future world will neither be unipolar nor bipolar but multipolar; the structure will be fragmented, and the heights of the poles will be asymmetrical.

World headed towards asymmetric multipolarity

From being an outspoken scholar in her youth to Singapore’s permanent representative to the United Nations and ambassador to the US, and her current role as Singapore's ambassador-at-large, a university professor and global co-chair of Asia Society, to my understanding, Chan still visits her office every day, immaculately dressed, her diligent and hardworking demeanour unchanging over the years.

Amid geopolitical tremors, the current situation is reminiscent of the ancient Chinese saying: “The world is in chaos (天下大乱).” How should we understand the future evolution of the world?

Chan thinks that the future world will neither be unipolar nor bipolar but multipolar; the structure will be fragmented, and the heights of the poles will be asymmetrical. The US will still be the tallest pole because of its military strength; its economy is still very strong and its alliances are spreading. Meanwhile, it is leading in the field of technology and still attracting talents.

But the US is not the only pole; China is another pole, India is catching up, and the EU wants to be a pole to be considered despite facing economic difficulties. Chan said, “Every other country wants to have agency and a say in matters. Look at the Middle East — although they are small- and medium-sized countries, they have effective and loud voices and do make an impact.”

Chan reminds us that Saudi Arabia and Qatar are playing the role of mediators and exercising effective diplomacy; BRICS countries are rising; and India is striving to be the leader of the global south. Although China wants to do the same, it is distracted by the domestic economy, cross-strait relations and China-US relations.

“I would say that the global south is not an organised school. They all have different objectives, goals, and they do not want to have just a single American perspective imposed on them. But I think everyone also realises that the US is still the highest pole,” Chan noted.

How should Singapore cope with an increasingly complex world? Chan did not give any “advice” but emphasised that there is no one-size-fits-all answer.

“I am often asked this question, ‘What should we do?’ Look at each situation and ask, ‘What are Singapore’s interests in each case? How should we deal with it and how should we respond?’ Our national interest is the only constant.”

Goldilocks and The Three Bears

Ravi Menon joined MAS in 1987, and stayed for the next 29 years, becoming its longest-serving managing director after being promoted to the role in 2011. In 2018, he was named “Best Central Bank Governor in Asia-Pacific” by The Banker, a publication of the Financial Times Group.

In early 2018, Menon described the world economy as the "Goldilocks economy", which was growing appropriately, neither too hot nor too cold. In the Grimm Brothers’ fairy tale Goldilocks and the Three Bears, Goldilocks enters the home of three bears, where she finds three bowls of porridge on their dining table; she passes over the bowls that are too hot and too cold and finishes the bowl that is "just right", before falling asleep.

I think one big change is that the era of cheap money and low-interest rates is probably over the next ten years.

At the time, Menon warned that just like in the fairy tale, there were signs of the three bears — Papa (inflation), Mama (protectionism), and Baby (financial instability) — emerging in the global economy, which could spoil Goldilocks’ happy dreams and disrupt the economic balance any time.

Six years on, Menon’s "three bears" have appeared, but will more characters enter the fray?

End of the era of cheap money

The story begins with Papa Bear — inflation.

Following a wave of global inflation, the tightening of monetary policies around the world will ease off within the next year or two. As inflation goes into hibernation, interest rates will fall from current highs.

Menon said, “Once inflation comes down, interest rates will start coming down but they are not going back to the old levels. So rates will remain higher than before. And that's a new adjustment that the global economy needs to make.”

Observing based on ten-year blocks, Menon pointed out that the past decade has been extremely unusual, with very low inflation and loose monetary policies, leading to extremely low interest rates and plenty of liquidity.

I think one big change is that the era of cheap money and low-interest rates is probably over the next ten years.

Global shift towards higher taxation

However, when that time comes, debt relative to GDP or other measures will remain too high around the world.

On the one hand, it is easy to borrow money when monetary policies are loose, and many governments, companies, and households would borrow more and more. On the other hand, many governments also spent a lot of money during the pandemic and racked up a lot of debt.

Menon said: “Now, they're having to reduce expenditures, or at least not let expenditures grow too fast. And they also have to seek new revenue sources. So I would not be surprised if there is a shift globally towards higher taxation to make up for lost revenues, to restore public finances to a more sustainable pathway.”

Global developments on enhanced taxation include the Base Erosion and Profit Shifting 2.0 (BEPS 2.0) framework, which makes it mandatory for multinational companies to be subjected to an effective global minimum corporate tax rate of 15%. This is to prevent such companies from transferring their profits to regions with lower corporate taxes, so that local governments do not lose tax revenues.

Even with stricter tax laws, Menon feels that governments that are under a lot of pressure, such as in the developed economies of the US and in Europe, have no choice but to reduce their social safety nets. “Otherwise, the debt builds up too fast and creates its own set of problems.”

... the more important thing is for people to examine their work and break it down into different tasks, because some tasks will disappear, such as those that software can do automatically, while new ones would appear...

More work carried out in teams, networks, and ecosystems

More profoundly, as the coverage of social safety nets narrows, the wave of disruption caused by new technologies such as generative AI may lead to more far-reaching and deeper structural changes.

Many people focus on whether AI is going to create jobs or whether it's going to destroy jobs. I think what's more important is that it is going to change our jobs.

Citing the news industry as an example, Menon said that in the past, stenographers were tasked to quickly record what interviewees said, but the role has since disappeared. “The job of a newspaper reporter is not going to go away because we need the news, but technology changes how news is produced, distributed, and consumed. All that has changed because of technology.”

Hence, the more important thing is for people to examine their work and break it down into different tasks, because some tasks will disappear, such as those that software can do automatically, while new ones would appear, such as the monitoring of cybersecurity risks.

“In each of our jobs, there are things that we're doing today that we did not do ten years ago. And if you look at every job, in large measure that is happening, the nature of the job changes. The pertinent question is: how my job is going to change in the next five years? How is it going to change in the next ten years?”

... the people's ability to work as part of networked teams that are digitally connected is very, very important.

At the same time, people also need to realise that as work becomes more complicated, the boundaries between individuals blur and overlap as more work needs to be carried out in teams, networks, and ecosystems instead of individually.

For example, in the past, a reporter would write or type out a news article before submitting it for editing, then retyping the corrected hard copy. Subsequently, editable electronic documents were used for typing and emailing, doing away with the need for hard copies for editing. Today, shared electronic documents allow many users to access the same file for data analysis, discussion, and commenting concurrently, making collaboration more efficient and facilitating the synthesis of new information.

Menon added, “So shared networks, shared workplaces, and shared work processes become very important. And I think again, that's something that companies and businesses of all types and organisations need to invest in, and the people's ability to work as part of networked teams that are digitally connected is very, very important.”

Finding a model of cooperation amid fragmentation

However, amid the climate of the fierce Mama Bear called protectionism, collaboration is no mean feat.

Menon conceded that there are more limitations to collaboration in today’s world as various economic fragmentations, such as trade, investment, technology, and finance, are in place. “You do need to be careful when you collaborate, that you are resilient to any sudden changes.”

For instance, if one used to only collaborate with two others, now one would have to collaborate with five others to reduce risk concentration. “So, in a funny sort of way, to build resilience, you need more diverse partners. It means more collaboration but in a very different sense.”

Menon said: “I wouldn't say it is the end of globalisation but I would say it's a different kind of globalisation, with some degree of fragmentation in trade, in investment in technology, and possibly in finance. When you take all that together, you're looking at a very different kind of world in the next ten years.”

However, on key issues like climate change and sustainable development, Menon hopes that all parties can work together to prevent the tragedy of the commons, in which a grass field is stripped bare after many farmers with cows all want their animals to eat the grass there.

To Menon, “it is a problem” that while the two biggest carbon emitters in the world, China and the US, realise the gravity of climate change, the tensions and lack of trust between them mean that it is difficult for them to cooperate effectively.

“Do we need to wait until a crisis or can we act before a crisis? I think countries like Singapore and others must continue to press for global cooperation in this space, try to bring parties together, and say even if you compete in other areas, even if you don't trust each other in other areas, please cooperate in fighting climate change.”

The Baby Bear of financial instability is also a potential risk that many are worried about.

During the Industrial Revolution, horse carriages were replaced by cars, and a similar change is occurring today as human society transits from an economy that relies on high carbon emissions to a green one. “When you go from the old economic structure to a new one, the transition is very, very painful. So, I think we are at the cusp of something similar.”

... the new economy also provides opportunities, such as in the form of tokenisation, for lower-income groups and small and medium enterprises.

Transition is excruciating but no cause for over pessimism

Menon feels that a big challenge is how the world manages this transition, especially when it comes to looking out for the vulnerable groups.

“I don't think it will be smooth. But how do you deal with the disruptions? How do you minimise the disruptions, how do you give enough time for the adjustment, and how do you help those who are impacted by the disruption adjust to the new economy?

On the upside, Menon feels that the new economy also provides opportunities, such as in the form of tokenisation, for lower-income groups and small and medium enterprises.

He draws the analogy of a dairy farmer who wishes to apply for a bank loan. Theoretically, the farmer can tokenise his cows and trade them on blockchains to generate more economic value. In turn, this can provide lower-income groups with opportunities to cash in on their non-financial assets, reducing their need for loans.

“Generally, such technologies can create a lot more opportunities for low-income people and small and medium enterprises provided they can invest in, understand, and use them.”

As for whether the new economy can narrow the wealth gap and revamp how wealth is distributed in our societies, Menon feels there are numerous other factors at play, such as advantages that are passed down to future generations. He feels that these may exacerbate inequality more than at any point in history.

Change is discomforting. And disruptive. But like all change, there is benefit and there is opportunity and there is also threat and vulnerability.

When it comes to Singapore’s economy, Menon feels that Singapore needs to understand such changes at a very deep level instead of employing just a simple binary assessment where one assumes things would turn bad in the future just because they have been good in the past. “That is not a very helpful approach,” he said.

“I hope I have not been too pessimistic. I said there will be a lot more change. There was more change in the last ten years compared to the previous ten years. And I think in the next ten years, you're going to see even more change than the last. Change is discomforting. And disruptive. But like all change, there is benefit and there is opportunity and there is also threat and vulnerability.”

Last window of opportunity to sprint towards a solution

The future of climate change and the environment is a tug-of-war between time, global politics, resources and wisdom. The focus of this interview lies in uncovering more favorable solutions and positivity for the climate crisis.

The two authors of "The Future We Choose: Surviving the Climate Crisis" are climate experts Christiana Figueres and Tom Rivett-Carnac. They were instrumental in facilitating the 2015 Paris Agreement, which aims to significantly reduce global greenhouse gas emissions and keep global warming within 1.5 degrees Celsius to avoid severe consequences of extreme climate.

Figueres mentioned in the book that to achieve at least a 50% success rate for the 1.5°C temperature control target, mankind must reduce global carbon emissions by half from current levels by 2030, further halved it again by 2040, and then achieve net-zero emissions by latest 2050. This transformation requires firm emission reductions in the economy and in people’s daily living, including stopping coal production from 2020, gradually ceasing oil and gas extraction, and finally abandoning the use of these fossil fuels altogether.

Professor Liu Bin said that compared to the pre-industrial revolution era one or two hundred years ago, the Earth's temperature has risen by 1.1 to 1.2°C to date. If people do not make any changes, the temperature could reach 1.5°C by around 2040, "which means we really don't have much time left, roughly just over a decade."

"But we also see many countries have already started to reduce emissions and start using new green energy. From this perspective, the time we have left is fairly long because we have been making progress, so it is still full of hope, and we can solve this problem within an appropriate time."

This optimism and confidence are about the choice for the future, that is, not to sit and wait in the face of climate issues.

Control technology costs for better households adoption

Figueres, who often calls herself a "stubborn optimist", has said, "Optimism is not about blindly ignoring the realities that surround us. That's foolishness. It's also not a naive faith that everything will take care of itself, even if we do nothing. That is irresponsibility. The optimism I'm speaking of is the necessary input to meeting a challenge, the only way to increase our chance of success."

In these ten years that is our last window to act on climate issues, Liu Bin feels that researchers should prioritise cooperation with the government. Researchers need to solve technical problems and make the improved technology as affordable as possible so that the public can adopt it. The government should set appropriate targets and use economic levers such as carbon taxes to quickly popularise relevant technologies and allow businesses to use green energy as soon as possible.

"For issues like climate and environment that are very relevant to the public, researchers especially need to consider whether the technology developed can be mass-produced and can cooperate with businesses to bring costs down. Only when costs are low can thousands of households easily adopt it."

Liu Bin cited solar energy as an example, saying that a few decades ago it cost tens of dollars per kilowatt, while today in some of the cheapest places for solar energy, it has dropped to 2 cents per kilowatt. Other data indicates that the price of solar energy has dropped by more than 80% in the past decade. And the prices of other new energies like wind energy and hydrogen energy are also gradually decreasing.

So from a scientific perspective, we are very confident that in the not too distant future, we will be able to solve many specific problems.

NUS develops carbon dioxide "catcher" to turn waste into sustainable energy

The Singapore Green Plan 2030 was released in 2021, setting clear goals for urban greening, sustainable living, and the green economy.

Liu Bin said that the goals set by Singapore are very clear. To achieve these goals, it depends on technology and many behaviors in people's lives. She feels that the government has done "very, very well" in providing guidance and doing relevant investments.

As a university that values research and application, the National University of Singapore (NUS) began in 2017 to focus on how to capture carbon dioxide from the air and to produce fuel from the reaction of carbon dioxide and hydrogen.

"When people talk about reducing emissions or changing the energy structure, they usually mean not to add too much carbon dioxide, but in fact, there is already a lot of carbon dioxide in our air, and warming is already happening. So how to bring the temperature back to the level 100 or 200 years ago? This requires new technology, which is to capture the carbon dioxide already in the air."

This method is more difficult than reducing emissions, but Liu Bin and fellow NUS researchers believe that doing so is more meaningful in the long run and more sustainable for Singapore.

"Singapore has relatively scarce natural resources, and if carbon dioxide, which is a pollutant and a completely free resource, can be used to generate new energy, it not only turns waste into treasure to solve the energy problem, but also solves the problem of rising temperature. More importantly, it means that on this land of Singapore, we can continuously produce new clean energy. So this approach is of great strategic significance."

In the process of research and development, NUS found that the price of the new energy to be produced is closely linked with the price of the required hydrogen. Therefore, Liu Bin led the establishment of the NUS Centre for Hydrogen Innovations two years ago, with the primary goal of reducing the price of hydrogen so that local industries and the public can use safer and more affordable hydrogen energy sources.

Liu Bin introduced NUS's research and development on turning carbon dioxide waste into treasure at the World Economic Forum in 2019. Now, this porous organic material that can capture carbon dioxide can be produced on a ton scale, and a small-scale factory will be ready next year to demonstrate this process.This innovative research and development are also meaningful for the planning of alternative energy in other countries.

Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Finance Lawrence Wong announced at the Singapore International Energy Week in October 2023 that Singapore will promote the development of hydrogen as an energy source through a National Hydrogen Strategy. By 2050, it may meet up to 50% of the local energy demand.

The Future Landscape of Alternative Energy is Bright and Sunny

Does this mean that in the future, Singapore might also have hydrogen-powered vehicles?

Liu Bin opines that a country’s choice between electric or hydrogen vehicles depends on its economic conditions and the efficiency of its energy application. Singapore is small, and its vehicles do not travel far. That makes electric vehicles more efficient. For longer distances, especially for heavy consumption vehicles like trucks or large lorries, hydrogen energy is better. Otherwise, the vehicles would require a significant amount of charging and need to carry a lot of batteries, which would affect their driving efficiency.

Therefore, the decision on which method to use should be based on energy efficiency and the resources consumed in the application process. Similarly, the technology each country adopts to combat climate change should depend on its own circumstances, and there should not be a one-size-fits-all solution.

Many technologies can be shared globally, but which specific technology to choose depends on one's own situation, with different countries making different choices.

If one were to paint a picture of the future landscape of alternative energy, Liu Bin says, "This painting should first and foremost be optimistic and bright, as we will gradually move away from relying on oil."

Singapore currently relies on natural gas but is experimenting with various alternatives. "We are preparing for hydrogen energy, new energy generated from carbon dioxide, recycled oil from pollution, solar energy, and a small amount of wind energy, all sorts of possibilities. In the future, we might also consider nuclear energy, so Singapore's planning is very good. The challenge is to make our technology affordable for businesses, the country, and its citizens to solve the problem."

In the more distant future, that painting might also include energy from space. "Space has a lot of gas and rays, all of which are energy sources. how we can collect and use them was hard to imagine in the past, but now, with technology, it is possible."

By Bridging Gaps in Resources between Nations Singapore shows that Small Countries can be Big Technology Leader

Money is key in energy transition, and there is a significant capability gap between wealthy countries and developing nations in terms of emission reduction transformation.

Whether one’s money is enough is a relative question. It also involves how we prioritise and spend every penny more effectively.

For example, while advanced countries continue to use oil or natural gas, they can further develop more advanced technologies such as carbon capture or carbon conversion. Less developed countries, on the other hand, can fully utilise the resources they already have, such as developing wind or solar energy, to reduce everyone's dependence on carbon or oil.

At the same time, "If the vast majority of countries can come together, the speed at which we develop effective solutions will definitely be faster. This is beneficial for both developed and less developed countries."

In this regard, Singapore is also contributing. "We are not only solving problems for Singapore or Southeast Asia, but often also thinking about finding a technology or possibility in Singapore to solve problems for other countries or on a larger scale. This has fully demonstrated Singapore's leadership in technology."

What Singapore sees are not only today but also the future. Not only do we see ourselves, but we also see the overall development of our neighbours and even the whole world. This is very visionary.

Environment and climate change issues have often been dragged into politics or geopolitics. Does this hinder scientists’ effort? "It does have some impact on us. For such a good cause, I wonder why are we not united in pushing this forward together?"

However, Liu Bin also emphasized that scientists are still focused on scientific issues, even if the impact is not too significant.

"Because we understand that the mission of scientists is to excel in technology, and we are clear about what we should do. The process is hard, it might take a thousand trials to succeed, but it's fulfilling because you know every step you take is to solve the world's problems."